Set lists--the list of songs performed by an artist at a concert--for many artists are freely available online going back many years. The list of songs played at each concert is random to some degree, but also connected to past set lists. So the sequence of concert set lists can be thought of as a random process. This particular random process is a Bernoulli autoregressive process. Such processes have many applications even though they have been studied very little and are not widely known. The focus of this talk will be how to model such processes with Markov chain models, using concert set list prediction as an illustrative example. Other uses for this kind of model will also be discussed, including predicting changes in the stock market, athletic performance, and patient adherence to prescribed treatments. This talk will cover:

How to access concert set list data for free online
What a Bernoulli autoregressive process is
How to build a model to make predictions from a Bernoulli autoregressive process
Other applications of such models