Pragmatic planning—the key to predictability in large-scale, complex software delivery.

Software development is predictably unpredictable. But that doesn’t stop us from being predictable in our deliveries, paradoxically. It is also not that difficult. It might be hard, but not difficult.

In my experience, I see three main problem areas for organizations:
1.Unrealistic Planning
2. Insufficient Collaboration
3. Fragmented Steering

The first one can be solved with simple solutions. The three things that I recommend that you do is:
A. Don't estimate - focus on flow.
B. Plan half - because you don't know what happens tomorrow.
C. Separate the roadmap from the releaseplan

In this talk I share a couple of stories from organizations I worked with. One complete failure that serves as a good example of establishing a powerful metaphor of why flow is so important.
Another where one of the departments went from 0% to 83% planned work delivered per quarter in only four quarters.
Lastly, one organization where the key point was to differentiate between the roadmap and the release plan.

This is an evolution of my talks 'Get the elephant off the road' and 'Can the elephant arrive on time' that moves focus to the practical implications and what organizations can (and should) do to overcome unrealistic planning.