Viktoria Izdebska
Founder of Dis·tribution · Distribution for AI rollups
San Francisco, California, United States
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Viktoria Izdebska is an Austrian entrepreneur and researcher based in San Francisco and Vienna. She works on distribution for AI rollups: which customer bases are worth buying, and why. She founded Dis·tribution, a research and advisory practice for AI rollups and the investors behind them, and wrote The Prediction Economy, a long-form thesis on what stays scarce once AI makes software and operations cheap. Her automation band turns the 30 to 70% automation range into a rule for when buying service companies beats building them. At nineteen she founded Octrace, a sales-intelligence company in Vienna. More at izdebska.com.
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The prediction economy: why the next vertical winners will see the market first
AI is making automation cheap. When every company in a vertical can automate the same work, automation stops being an advantage. Viktoria Izdebska argues that the next phase belongs to the companies that see the market through their work, not just the ones that automate it.
Service providers such as tax advisors, insurance brokers and IT providers sit on a stream of private client data that their everyday work produces. Taken together, a network of them works like a panel: it sees what an industry is about to do before anyone else does. The talk explains how that data becomes a moat, why a customer base and its data can be valued as an asset in their own right, and what this changes for AI rollups, software companies and the investors behind them.
It draws on her paper The Prediction Economy and on her work at Octrace, a company that predicted company events from publicly available data.
Format: keynote or talk (20 to 40 minutes); also works as a fireside chat or panel.
Audience: investors, operators of vertical software and service businesses, data and strategy teams.
Language: English or German.
Background: predictioneconomy.ai and izdebska.com/concepts/the-prediction-economy
The automation band: which service businesses AI rollups should buy
AI rollups are buying accounting firms, IT service providers, property managers and insurance brokers on the bet that software will do much of the work. Most of the debate is about what AI can automate. This talk asks a different question: which customer bases are worth buying in the first place.
Viktoria Izdebska introduces the automation band: the range of roughly 30 to 70 percent of a vertical's work that AI can automate. Below the band, AI adds too little margin to justify a deal. Above it, buyers pay for staff they plan to replace and for customers who can switch quickly, so building beats buying. Inside the band, buying a company with existing operations and client relationships beats building one. There is one exception above the band: when the acquired client relationships produce data you cannot get any other way.
Drawing on her public tracker of more than 50 AI rollups, the talk shows how to place an industry on the band, where the main sectors sit today, and what this means for buyers, sellers and investors.
Format: keynote or talk (20 to 40 minutes); also works as a fireside chat or panel.
Audience: investors, acquirers, founders and owners of service businesses.
Language: English or German.
Background: izdebska.com/concepts/the-automation-band and izdebska.com/tracker
Viktoria Izdebska
Founder of Dis·tribution · Distribution for AI rollups
San Francisco, California, United States
Actions
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