Are we more productive with AI? How to answer honestly

"Are we more productive with AI?" is being asked in almost every product and technology organisation right now. It is also, as usually stated, close to unanswerable — and the ways people make it answerable tend to quietly guarantee a positive result.
My background is in performance metrics and lean-agile measurement: designing how technology organisations measure themselves, teaching performance metrics and OKRs at postgraduate level for the last five years, and working through several generations of delivery measurement across different industries. This session is the method I'd give someone who has just been handed this question and a deadline.
What I'll cover:
1. Why does the question defeat people? "Productivity" collapses three different things — output, throughput and value delivered — that move independently and sometimes in opposite directions. I'll show how conflating them produces confident conclusions that don't survive contact with reality.
2. Decomposition. A practical way to break the question into observable signals: adoption, flow, quality, and the experience of the people doing the work. What each one can and can't tell you, and why the fourth is the one most organisations skip.
3. The four traps. Attribution (something else changed too), novelty (the first eight weeks lie), optimisation (people meet the metric you chose), and the output–value gap (shipping more of the wrong thing faster). For each: how it shows up, and one check that catches it. [FILL: for at least two of these, add a short anonymised story from your own career — "in one organisation…" — where you or a team you worked with fell into it]
4. What the published research actually says. A practitioner's read on the current studies of AI coding assistants and developer throughput — where the findings are consistent, where they conflict, and where the study design doesn't transfer to how most of us work. [FILL: name the two or three studies you've actually read so you can credit them properly — the guidelines require crediting sources, and it strengthens the talk]
5. Designing a defensible approach. How to assemble a small measurement set you could put in front of both a sceptical engineer and an executive who wants a number this quarter, and survive both conversations.
6. The part that stays human. Choosing what deserves to be measured is not an analytical act. It's a negotiation with the people whose work is being described, and getting it wrong damages trust in ways the dashboard never shows. I'll argue this is the coach's real job in this wave, and that it is getting harder, not easier.
A note on evidence: I'm deliberately not presenting a single-organisation case study. The numbers from any one company don't transfer, and I'd rather give you a method you can run than a result you can only admire. Every example I use is either published research, properly credited, or an anonymised pattern from across the organisations I've worked in.
Interactivity: I'll open by asking the room to write down, in one sentence, what their organisation currently claims about AI and productivity — and how they'd know if it were wrong. We come back to it at the end. Ten minutes for questions and challenge. Nobody has to speak aloud.
Key points — you will leave this session with…
A decomposition of "are we more productive?" into four observable signal groups you can actually collect
Four measurement traps that produce flattering results, with one practical check for each
A practitioner's read on what the published research supports and where it doesn't transfer to your context
A small, defensible measurement set you can take to both engineers and executives
A way to involve the people being measured in choosing the measures — and the case for why skipping that step costs you more than it saves

We've solved measuring engineers four times already

I graduated into software in the nineties and have worked through four confident answers to the question "how do we know if this is going well?" I didn't observe them from outside — I was certified in them, implemented them, and taught them.
Process maturity. I participated in CMM and CMMI appraisals in software factories in the early 2000s, as both assessor and as manager of projects under assessment. I know exactly what it feels like to be on both sides of that.
The project management orthodoxy. Earned value, PMO governance, the discipline of the plan. I've held a PMP since 2002 and led a chapter of the professional body.
Velocity and the agile metrics era. Story points escaping the team and becoming a management number, with everything that followed.
DevOps performance measures. Implementing delivery performance metrics based on the State of DevOps research in a large media technology organisation, and later in travel.
And now: has AI made us faster?
The argument:
Each of these waves was a real improvement on what came before. I'm not going to stand up and say they were all foolish — I chose each of them, and I'd choose most of them again in context.
But each followed the same arc. A genuine insight, expressed as a measure. The measure proves useful. The measure becomes the goal. The measure gets reported upward, away from the context that made it meaningful. And then it starts describing something other than the work. I'll show the mechanism concretely for each of the four, with what specifically broke.
Then the harder part: I'll argue the current wave is following the same arc faster than any of its predecessors, and I'll be specific about which early symptoms are already visible. And I'll make the case for what has actually survived all four waves intact — because something has, and it's the part nobody builds a certification around.
How this fits the theme: every one of these waves was, at bottom, an attempt to make judgement unnecessary. To find a number that would tell us what was true without anyone having to decide. None of them worked, and the reason they didn't is the most human thing in our discipline. That seems worth saying out loud in a year when we're being told judgement is the thing being automated.
Tone: reflective, not a rant. Each wave gets credit for what it got right before I say what went wrong. I'm implicated in all of them, and the talk says so.
A note on evidence: all four examples are from my own career, across multiple organisations and industries, most of them ten to twenty-five years ago. Nothing here depends on any employer's data. Where I reference published research — the State of DevOps work in particular — I'll credit it properly.
Interactivity: I'll ask the room at the start how many have been measured by each of the four, which usually produces a useful map of the audience. Two short "have you seen this?" checks during the talk. Fifteen minutes at the end for discussion, which I expect to be the best part — there will be people in that room who lived these waves differently than I did, and I want to hear it.
Key points — you will leave this session with…
The shared mechanism by which good measures become bad ones, described concretely across four decades of examples
A set of early warning signs that a measure has started describing something other than the work
What each of the four orthodoxies got genuinely right, and what's worth keeping from each
A specific, falsifiable prediction about where the current AI-productivity measurement wave is heading, that you can test in your own organisation
An argument for what has survived all four waves — and why it's the part that doesn't get automated

The Echo Chamber of Progress: Why Leaders Resist the Change They Preach

Why do leaders who tirelessly champion innovation and transformation often find themselves trapped in an 'echo chamber', advocating for change while subtly resisting its personal embodiment?

This talk uncovers the profound, invisible force at the heart of this paradox: the deeply ingrained human need for autonomy. Through the poignant personal narrative of my father — a decision-maker who only quit smoking when he chose to. I remember the day, at 62 years old, when he declared: 'From today, I will not smoke anymore.' And he never did. For years, I carried this question: What changed? What invisible force finally tipped the scales for a man who seemed to defy all logic?" — I will demonstrate how the perceived loss of control can silently undermine even the most well-intentioned leadership initiatives.

This discussion challenges conventional thinking on leadership resistance, providing actionable insights into how leaders can redefine their relationship with autonomy and become genuine role models for the future.

This is not just a talk by a 'speaker'; it's a narrative forged from two decades of working directly with and observing leadership dynamics in the trenches of organisational change.

My aim is not to shock, but to explore honestly, thoughtfully and boldly the truths that our organisational society has been avoiding about who truly drives – or subtly halts – progress at the top.

Mastering Strategy Execution: Simplifying KPIs and OKRs for Sustainable Success

In this session, we will dive into the critical aspects of effectively linking strategy with execution through the adoption of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and Objectives and Key Results (OKRs). Discover how to streamline your approach to performance measurement and drive organisational success by aligning your goals with your strategic vision.

BRIEFING
A Practical approach to simplify the adoption of KPIs and OKRs, tailored specifically for startups and scale-ups.

Exploring real-life challengefull stories of organisations that needed to successfully linked their strategy with execution using KPIs and OKRs.

Bringing insights into effective techniques for cascading goals across different levels of your organization.

Exploring the relevancy of balanced OKRs in maintaining focus, agility, and performance in rapidly evolving markets.

TAKE AWAYS
An engaging presentation offering a deep dive into the core practises of strategies, and achievements of adopting KPIs and OKRs into Startups and Scales Ups.

Small guide to start the journey to connect, track and monitoring the business results aligning the KPIs and OKRs.

Minimum Business Increments (MBIs) as the key to unlocking value in your organization:

The original purpose of an MBI (Minimum Business Increment) was to provide a structured and incremental approach to delivering value to customers and achieving business goals. MBIs are closely related to Agile and Lean principles, aiming to break down projects into smaller, manageable units that can be developed, tested, and delivered independently. MBIs allow organizations to validate assumptions, gather feedback, and adapt their plans based on real-world responses by focusing on the smallest increments that deliver tangible benefits to customers.

The Agile Manifesto, created in 2001 by a group of software developers and thought leaders, emphasizes the importance of "delivering working software frequently, with a preference to the shorter timescale." This core principle influenced the idea of breaking down work into smaller units that deliver value incrementally.

Over time, as Agile principles spread across various industries beyond software development, the concept of MBIs emerged to apply the Agile mindset to business initiatives more broadly. Organizations began to realize the value of delivering incremental customer value, leading to adopting and refining the MBI concept in different business contexts.

As with many concepts in the Agile world, the idea of MBIs has evolved and been shaped by the contributions and experiences of many practitioners and organizations over time. While no single person or entity can be credited with "inventing" the concept, MBIs have become a valuable tool for organizations seeking to improve their value delivery process and respond more effectively to customer needs.

Agenda:

What are MBIs?
Connection to Value streams
Examples of MBIs
Summary

Mastering Value Stream Management: Boosting Efficiency and Delivering Value

The Value Stream Managemet is a combination of techniques that continuously and holistically optimize the flow and value realization of a product or service.
There are some potential pitfalls that cause organisations to fail when pursuing this vision.

This session will show you how to streamline your processes, eliminate waste, and enhance value delivery from end to end. Learn proven strategies, examples, and cutting-edge tools from Disciplined Agile (DA) that will boost your organization's operations.

Agenda:

Defining Value Streams
The Principles of Value Stream Management
Value Stream Mapping: A Visual Approach and DA Flex approach
Identifying and Eliminating Waste
Implementing Value Stream Improvements (DA Playbook)
Measuring and Monitoring Value Streams
Benefits of Effective Value Stream Management

Você Entregou Valor? Como Saber?

Medir a entrega de valor não é algo trivial, o que vai exigir que a empresa seja focada no cliente (customer centric), buscando ciclos curtos de feedback e tenha uma cultura baseada em princípios ágeis, permitindo um ambiente psicologicamente seguro, adaptativo, flexível e colaborativo.
Sabemos que OKR é uma ferramenta fantástica para alinhar os times e a organização a obejtivos comums, medido por indicadores de resultados. Porém, só se pode considerar que um valor foi entregue aos clientes e a sociedade, quando esse valor é percebido e o produto é de fato consumido. Não basta ser entregue algo com qualidade e funcionando, se não é atrativo e não há adesão ao uso (tração).
Nessa palestra será abordada a importância de se ter uma curva de adoção de produto projetada e OKRs definidos, tornando possível fazer o acompanhamento mais cedo de tendência de consumo do produto e dos resultados, em conjunto com entregas baseadas em MBI (Minimal Business Increment) e a experiência do consumidor sendo monitorada através do modelo ROX (return on experience), na abordagem trazida pela PWC em 2019 com base no Global Consumer Insights Survey 2019.

Business Agility

Nessa sessão serão apresentadas escolhas de metodologias ágeis que dão fit com o DNA de cada Organização, trazendo práticas para a avaliação das organizações e sugerindo ferramentas para cada contexto e desafios dos times que navegam nas diversas camadas da empresa que está em busca de uma maior agilidade nos negócios.

Agile Coach: Muito além de soluções prescritivas !

Nessa sessão estão contempladas práticas e ferramentas para uma jornada ágil em busca do Business Agility.
Alguns conceitos: Fundamentos sobre o papel do Agile Coach, A importância do pragmatismo para uma implantação ágil, trabalhando com WoW (Work on your Way), Assessment de maturidade dos times, Métricas para a organização e times ágeis.

Agilidade X Cultura Organizacional

Se a gestão ágil é um fator relevante para a transformação dos negócios, o conhecimento dos modelos atuais e a aderência a cultura é essencial para se usufruir dos benefícios de cada uma das abordagens. Tendências e opções de práticas de métodos ágeis, desde o Scrum, até modelos híbridos e bi-modais de gestão de Projetos.
Modelos de escalabilidade ágil, como SAFe, DAD e Spotify, fazendo um mapeamento desses com os tipos de culturas organizacionais.
Principais desafios culturais da implantação Ágil.

Evolving Your Culture for Sustainable Success

In a world of constant change, the most successful organizations are those with a culture that can evolve and adapt. This two-hour workshop is designed to help you explore the fundamental principles of cultural evolution. We will examine how an organization's values, behaviors, and leadership can create an agile, resilient, and customer-focused environment. Through a mix of conceptual learning and hands-on exercises, you will gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics of culture and learn practical ways to align your teams and initiatives with a shared vision for sustainable success.

Conceptualisation of:

Concepts: Culture, Culture evolution, and Organisational Models

New times, new paradigms and ways of thinking and acting, needs and motivations

Fundamentals of Cultural Diagnosis and Cultural Archetypes

Leadership performance aligned with the intrinsic values of the organisation

Current state, desired state that are supported by a company's leaders.

Initiatives aligned with sustaining the culture of organisations, with the adoption of organisational values appropriate to the business purpose.

Importance of associating values with organisational performance and measuring business results accompanied by metrics.

Articles: https://medium.com/edreams-odigeo-tech/does-your-company-need-to-become-google-or-spotify-59d247c25d9e, https://medium.com/@carla.krieger/context-counts-tailoring-good-agile-practices-for-business-a5c355369180 , https://medium.com/@carla.krieger/cultural-transformation-engaging-people-1f0032d7ff88 , https://medium.com/@carla.krieger/transforming-organizational-culture-by-business-results-indicators-33ee1a380cad, https://medium.com/@carla.krieger/the-7-levels-of-consciousness-and-the-archetypes-of-a-cultural-transformation-5493661f2278

A two-hour workshop that can easily be converted into a talk.

Authenticity in the AI Era: Finding Your Voice

In a world where AI tools offer unprecedented productivity, a new question arises: are we sacrificing our authenticity for the sake of efficiency? This talk is a reflection about the complex relationship between human creativity and artificial intelligence. We will delve into how AI can amplify our voices and boost results , but also examine the potential for manipulative use and "hacking ways of thinking". We'll discuss how to define authenticity when the final output is a co-creation between human and machine. Join us as we navigate the paradox of AI, challenge our perceptions of authenticity, and discover how to leverage these powerful tools without losing our unique human essence.
Article: https://medium.com/@carla.krieger/authenticity-in-the-ai-era-4d6b2e669317

Session duration: up to 40 minutes

Optimizing Value Streams: An Introduction to Lean Portfolio Management

Are your strategic initiatives truly delivering value? In today's dynamic market, traditional annual budgeting and rigid project planning can create bottlenecks, slow down innovation, and misalign teams from business goals. This 2-hour interactive workshop, "Optimizing Value Streams: An Introduction to Lean Portfolio Management," offers a transformative approach to aligning strategy with execution.
Based on the principles of Lean Portfolio Management (LPM), we'll move beyond a project-centric mindset to focus on a continuous flow of value. Through a hands-on "Value Stream Analysis" exercise, you'll learn to identify and eliminate waste, while a guided discussion will introduce you to key LPM disciplines like outcome-based planning and value-based prioritization. We'll explore the power of embracing a "fail fast" culture and investing in small, incremental initiatives to reduce risk and accelerate learning. This workshop is designed for Agile Coaches, leaders, and anyone involved in strategic planning who wants to shift their organization towards a more agile, responsive, and value-driven approach. Walk away with practical insights and actionable steps to begin optimizing your own value streams.

Articles: https://medium.com/edreams-odigeo-tech/lean-portfolio-and-value-stream-optimization-3cf5177c8aab , https://medium.com/edreams-odigeo-tech/strategy-from-purpose-to-result-a16697ee3061

A two-hour workshop that can easily be converted into a talk.

Measuring What Really Matters

In today's fast-paced, complex business environment, understanding and measuring what truly matters is crucial for an organization's success. This interactive workshop will provide participants with a practical framework for using key indicators to monitor the delivery of value and results. We will explore a balanced approach to metrics, combining effectiveness, efficiency, and quality to make more informed decisions and drive business sustainability. Participants will learn how to identify the right indicators for their context, avoid common pitfalls, and foster a culture of continuous improvement and engagement.
Benefits
• Making more effective decisions: The workshop would provide the tools and understanding to define and use appropriate indicators, which in turn leads to better decision-making.
• Ability to view new opportunities: By understanding how to measure what really matters, participants can identify new opportunities and the necessary actions to achieve them.
• Greater focus on customer and market demands: The workshop emphasizes delivering value from the customer's perspective, helping participants to better focus on what the customer wants.
• Greater engagement of those involved: The use of collaborative tools like OKRs and a clear purpose can create a sense of belonging and greater engagement among team members.
• Intelligent resource allocation: By using indicators to monitor performance and identify bottlenecks, organizations can make smarter decisions about where to allocate resources.
• Identification of flow gaps and continuous improvement: Metrics like the Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD) and Lean metrics help identify bottlenecks and areas for improvement in workflows.
• Promoting greater business sustainability for the long term: The balanced approach to indicators and the focus on a North Star Metric (NSM) helps to drive long-term, sustainable growth for the business.

References: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carla-krieger/details/featured/1635492413434/single-media-viewer/?profileId=ACoAAACLnl0BZnzf1DLD52_uia86ax614GficxI, https://1drv.ms/b/c/b0556422816916b8/EbgWaYEiZFUggLDaOgAAAAABIJhqJh1HqR_KkMrMO3PWJg?e=b15E2J

A two-hour workshop that can easily be converted into a talk.